Chapter 1 — The End of Bipolarity

Bipolarity refers to the Cold War world order divided between two superpowers—the US-led capitalist bloc and the Soviet-led socialist/communist bloc. The end of bipolarity means the collapse of this two-bloc structure when the Soviet Union disintegrated in December 1991, leaving the US as the sole superpower. The chapter explores whether the resulting world order became unipolar (US dominant) or moved towards multipolarity where several powers share influence.

The chapter identifies several interconnected causes. The Soviet economy stagnated because it spent vast resources on the arms race and maintaining satellite states, causing consumer shortages and loss of public confidence. The Communist Party was authoritarian, unaccountable, and plagued by corruption. Gorbachev's reforms, intended to modernise the system, released nationalist aspirations in republics like the Baltic states, Ukraine and Georgia that the government could not contain. A failed coup by Communist Party hardliners in August 1991 then accelerated the final dissolution.

Mikhail Gorbachev (born 1931) became General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union in March 1985. He introduced two key reform policies—perestroika (restructuring) and glasnost (openness)—to modernise the Soviet economy and political system. He withdrew Soviet troops from Afghanistan and Eastern Europe, helped in the unification of Germany, and ended the Cold War. Though his goal was to save the Soviet Union, his reforms unleashed forces he could not control, leading to its disintegration. He resigned as President of the Soviet Union on 25 December 1991.

The Berlin Wall was built in 1961 to separate East Berlin from West Berlin; it was more than 150 kilometres long and stood for 28 years as the most powerful symbol of the Cold War division between the capitalist and communist worlds. On 9 November 1989 the people broke it down, marking the unification of Germany and the beginning of the end of the communist bloc. The chapter opens with this event because it dramatises the popular rejection of the Soviet system that had been building across Eastern Europe.

Shock therapy was the model of transition from a socialist to a capitalist economy, influenced by the World Bank and IMF, applied in Russia, Central Asia and Eastern Europe after the Soviet collapse. It required immediate privatisation of state assets, replacement of collective farms with private farming, free trade, foreign direct investment (FDI) and currency convertibility. It was not successful: in Russia about 90 per cent of industries were put up for sale at throwaway prices, the ruble collapsed, inflation wiped out savings, collective farms disintegrated forcing Russia to import food, and the real GDP in 1999 was below the 1989 level. About half of Russia's 1,500 banks went bankrupt. The chapter describes it as bringing 'ruin to the economies and disaster upon the people.'

The CIS is the organisation formed in December 1991 after Russia, Belarus and Ukraine declared the Soviet Union disbanded by annulling the 1922 Treaty on the Creation of the USSR. Armenia, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan also joined, with Georgia joining later in 1993. Its formation came as a surprise to the other republics, especially the Central Asian ones, which had not asked for independence. Russia was accepted as the successor state of the Soviet Union, inheriting its UN Security Council seat and all international treaties.

The chapter identifies three broad consequences. First, the end of Cold War confrontations—the ideological dispute between socialism and capitalism ended, making possible an end to the arms race and nuclear weapons accumulation. Second, a shift in power relations—the US became the sole superpower, the capitalist economy became dominant globally, institutions like the World Bank and IMF became powerful advisors, and liberal democracy emerged as the preferred form of political life. Third, many new independent countries emerged from the former Soviet bloc: Baltic and East European states sought to join the EU and NATO, while Central Asian states sought ties with Russia, the West, the US and China.

Rising nationalism and the desire for sovereignty in various Soviet republics proved to be the final and most immediate cause of disintegration. The Baltic Republics (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania), Ukraine, Georgia and Russia itself all asserted independence. Ironically, nationalist dissatisfaction was strongest not in the Central Asian republics (as many expected given their ethnic and religious differences) but in the more 'European' and prosperous parts—Russia, the Baltic areas, Ukraine and Georgia—where people felt they were paying too high an economic price to keep the more backward areas within the Union.

India maintained good relations with all post-communist countries, but the strongest ties remained with Russia. Indo-Russian relations are embedded in a history of trust and common interests; Hindi films and Indian culture, from Raj Kapoor to Amitabh Bachchan, are household names across Russia and post-Soviet countries. More than 80 bilateral agreements were signed under the Indo-Russian Strategic Agreement of 2001. India benefits through Russia's support on the Kashmir issue, energy supplies, intelligence sharing on terrorism, and help in balancing relations with China. Russia benefits because India is its second largest arms market.

The USSR was founded after the 1917 Russian Revolution on socialist principles. The state owned land and productive assets, the economy was centrally planned and controlled, and the government subsidised basic necessities including health, education and childcare. Only the Communist Party was permitted—no opposition was allowed. Over time the system became bureaucratic and authoritarian; the party, which had ruled for over 70 years, was unaccountable to the people. Wages grew but productivity and technology fell behind the West, and consumer goods were constantly in shortage. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 worsened the economic burden further.

Boris Yeltsin (1931–2007) was the first elected President of Russia (1991–1999). He rose within the Communist Party and was made the Mayor of Moscow by Gorbachev, but later became a critic of Gorbachev and left the party. He emerged as a national hero by opposing the August 1991 coup staged by Communist Party hardliners. Under his leadership, Russia, Ukraine and Belarus declared the Soviet Union disbanded in December 1991. He was later blamed for the hardships suffered by Russians during the painful transition from communism to capitalism.

The Warsaw Pact was the military alliance that held together the Soviet bloc—the East European countries whose political and economic systems were modelled after the USSR and which had come under Soviet control after the Second World War. The USSR was the leader of this bloc. In October 1989 the Soviet Union declared that Warsaw Pact members were free to decide their own futures. This was part of the broader chain of events that saw communist governments replaced one after another across Eastern Europe in response to mass demonstrations.

Most former Soviet republics became prone to conflicts. In Russia, Chechnya and Dagestan had violent secessionist movements. In Central Asia, Tajikistan witnessed a civil war lasting ten years until 2001. In Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh, local Armenians sought to secede and join Armenia. In Georgia, two provinces demanded independence. In Eastern Europe, Czechoslovakia split peacefully into Czech and Slovak countries, but Yugoslavia broke apart violently after 1991 as Croatia, Slovenia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina declared independence; ethnic Serbs opposed this, a massacre of non-Serb Bosnians followed, and NATO eventually intervened.

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